UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo reported in a report on January 16 that most members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to comply with the agreement to cut production, which is expected to boost oil prices in the coming months. Rise.
    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plans to reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million barrels per day from January 1, 2017. Russia and other non-OPEC oil producers plan to reduce about 600,000 barrels per day.
    Saudi Arabia said last week that its oil production has fallen below 10 million barrels per day, hitting its lowest level since February 2015, and is expected to cut production more next month. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo stressed the confidence of oil-producing countries in fully implementing the production reduction agreement reached last month. US crude oil futures rose 0.30% on Monday to $52.50 a barrel, down nearly 3% last week. Brent crude futures rose 0.25% to $55.61 a barrel, down about 3% last week.
    UBS expects that the rise in oil prices will continue in the first half of 2017, and as the high oil prices stimulate more supply to return, the rise in oil prices in the second half of the year may tend to be moderate. "OPEC Secretary General said that he is confident in the full compliance with the production reduction agreement. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said in an interview with Reuters that he is confident in complying with the production reduction agreement and that 24 participating countries have also shown enthusiasm and attitude. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait On Thursday (January 12), they said that their production cuts were already higher than the agreement, and Iraq also said it had reduced production and exports.
    The level of compliance with the agreement will be monitored at the Vienna meeting on January 22. Barkindo pointed out that it is still too early to say whether the agreement will continue after June, but OPEC ministers will decide at the Vienna meeting on May 25. He pointed out that OPEC will make decisions based on agreement compliance, market response, fundamentals, supply and demand, and inventory.
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Barkindo also said that OPEC does not have a specific psychological price, the main reason for the reduction is to remove high inventory. “The goal is to bring the market back to a balance between supply and demand, achieve stability, and reduce inventory levels to the 5-year industry average, and we are beginning to see results,” he said.