Shock! Just one trading day in 2017, the first black swan came last night (January 4th): the offshore renminbi was horrified, and the shorts encountered "the night of the massacre"... never expected! This year's first "black swan" is the violent pull of the renminbi! After the Fed meeting minutes hit the dollar long overnight, this evening (January 5), the dollar will usher in a fierce battle.
   Shock! The first black swan in 2017 turned out to be...
   Just in the market, the renminbi is expected to continue the depreciation momentum of last year. Who knows that just one trading day in 2017, the market has been smashed: the renminbi has appreciated madly. This is also the first "black swan" this year!
   Yesterday (January 4th) evening to today (January 5th), the worst thing is the offshore RMB shorts... The offshore RMB once roared nearly 1000 points overnight, and continuously broke through the top ten barriers. Today (January 5th), it broke the 6.80 mark in one fell swoop, with a maximum of 6.7854, the highest since November 9 last year.
   According to Bloomberg, according to the trend back to 2010, the two-day rise in offshore RMB/USD has been the largest since its inception. With the skyrocketing offshore renminbi, the onshore renminbi also rose by more than 300 points from today's middle price. The onshore renminbi once rose above the 6.9 mark, the highest at 6.8724.
   Today, the official closing price of RMB against the US dollar was 6.8817, which was 668 points higher than the official closing price of the previous trading day. It was the biggest one-day gain in nearly 11 months, up 489 points from the previous trading day. The central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.9307, which was more than 200 points higher than the previous day's median price of 6.9526. The last night of the night closed at 6.9306. However, the onshore renminbi did not rise as fast as the offshore renminbi, resulting in an onshore-offshore price hung up nearly 1,000 points, the highest level in history.
   Earlier in the day, Hong Kong's offshore renminbi Hibor interest rate continued to soar, overnight interest rates soared 2,139 basis points to 38.335%, continuing to hit a new high since January 13, 2016. Hibor is generally regarded as the cost basis for shorting the renminbi. Hibor has often seen higher values since the end of last year, resulting in a sharp rise in the cost of shorting renminbi.
   According to media reports, the German commercial bank Zhou Hao issued a report in the morning, pointing out that the recent trend of CNH reflects a new attitude of the central bank. As long as it is not willing to provide too much liquidity for CNH, the market will always show the current liquidity tightening, and This tight liquidity will increase the cost of short-selling, which will eventually lead to the strengthening of the renminbi. CNH continued to skyrocket overnight, and short covering and the relative weakness of the US dollar led to the market being trampled.
   Market analysis mostly believes that the recent sharpening of the RMB in the offshore market is caused by the short position of the market. The reasons include that the above-mentioned renminbi liquidity is relatively tight and the short-selling cost is rising, and the introduction of multiple policies of the Chinese regulatory authorities at the beginning and end of the year has a certain impact on the bears. It is expected that the management will increase the initial results.
   According to Bloomberg, due to the rising cost of offshore RMB borrowing funds, today's offshore RMB overnight deposit rates and US dollar/offshore RMB futures futures points soared to a record high. The overnight deposit rate rose by more than 66 percentage points to 80%, and the dollar/offshore yuan futures point rose to 246.6 points tomorrow.
   The report pointed out that foreign-funded traders in London and Asia said last night that the most fundamental reason for CNH's rise was the soaring cost of short-selling renminbi and the continued tightness of offshore renminbi liquidity. In addition, the dollar fell, triggering a large number of USD/CNH stop-loss orders. . In addition, the reason for the strength of the renminbi is the sharp correction of the US dollar. Analysts said that the market had been doing more dollars before, and on January 20th Trump was sworn in before or some of the dollar was sold.
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